Meteorologists and bookies have opportunities and incentives to maintain records of their forecasting abilities.  The rest of us seldom have enough carefully tracked data to adequately calibrate our minds to make reasonable estimates in the face of uncertainty. This sets us up for three estimating and forecasting traps.

1. The Overconfidence Trap

Most of us are overconfident about our judgment abilities and prediction accuracy, as we remember our successes and quickly forget our errors. Our hubris tricks us into considering only a narrow range of possibilities.

Major initiatives and investments often hinge on estimate ranges. Managers who underestimate the high end (or overestimate the low end) of a crucial variable may miss attractive opportunities or expose themselves to far greater risk than ever imagined.

2. The Prudence Trap

When faced with high stakes, we tend to adjust our estimates or forecasts with prudence, “just to be on the safe side.” Too much prudence can be as dangerous as too little.

3. The “Recallability” Trap

Memories of dramatic events leave strong impressions on our minds and can skew future decision-making efforts.

The Antidote

Take a disciplined approach to forecasting.

• Start by considering the extremes: the low and high ends of possible value ranges. Then, challenge your estimates, as well as those of your subordinates and advisers.
• Always state your estimates honestly, and explain to anyone who will be using them that they have not been adjusted.  Emphasize the need for frank input to anyone who will be supplying you with estimates. Test estimates over a reasonable range to assess their impact.
• Carefully examine all of your assumptions to ensure they’re not unduly influenced by your memory.  Get actual statistics whenever possible, and avoid being guided by impressions.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb: The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Before making an important decision, prudent managers evaluate the situations confronting them — and often fall into one of the eight traps of faulty thinking.  The Framing Trap

While we cannot entirely rid ourselves of them, we can learn to understand the traps and compensate for them.

The first step in making a decision is to frame the question. It’s also one of the most dangerous; how you frame a problem can profoundly influence your choices.

The Antidote

Limit adverse effects by employing the following:

• Don’t automatically accept the initial frame, whether it was formulated by you or someone else.  Always try to reframe the problem in various ways.
• Try posing problems in neutral ways that combine gains and losses or embrace different reference points.
• When others recommend decisions, examine the way they framed the problem. Challenge them with different frames.

Researchers have identified a series of eight flaws in the way we think when making decisions. They are hardwired into our thinking process, so we often fail to recognize them. 

While we cannot entirely rid ourselves of them, we can learn to understand the traps and compensate for them.

The Confirming Evidence Trap

Leaders sometimes seek out information that supports their existing instinct or point of view, while avoiding information that contradicts it.  This trap affects where we go to collect evidence, as well as how we interpret it.

The Antidote

Don’t necessarily disregard the choice to which you’re subconsciously drawn, but make sure it’s the smart one.

• Check whether you’re examining all evidence with equal rigor.
• Ask someone you respect to play devil’s advocate.
• Be honest with yourself about your motives.  Are you really gathering information to help you make a smart choice—or are you looking for evidence that confirms what you already think and want to do?
• When seeking others’ advice, don’t ask leading questions that invite confirming evidence.

Before making an important decision, prudent managers evaluate the situations confronting them — and often fall into one of the eight traps of faulty thinking.

Researchers have identified a series of flaws in the way we think when making decisions. They are hardwired into our thinking process, so we often fail to recognize them. 

While we cannot entirely rid ourselves of them, we can learn to understand the traps and compensate for them.

The Sunk-Cost Trap

We tend to make choices in ways that justify past decisions, even when the latter no longer seem valid.  We know rationally that sunk costs are irrelevant to present decisions, but they nevertheless lead to inappropriate choices. This frequently occurs when we’re unwilling, consciously or not, to admit a mistake.

The Antidote

• Seek feedback from those who were uninvolved in the earlier decision.
• Examine why admitting a past mistake distresses you.  Even the best and most experienced managers are not immune to errors in judgment.
• Be on the lookout for the influence of sunk-cost biases in subordinates’ decisions and recommendations.
• Don’t cultivate a failure-fearing culture that leads employees to perpetuate and cover up mistakes.

Before making an important decision, prudent managers evaluate the situations confronting them — and often fall into one of the eight traps of faulty thinking.

Researchers have identified a series of flaws in the way we think when making decisions. They are hardwired into our thinking process, so we often fail to recognize them. 

While we cannot entirely rid ourselves of them, we can learn to understand the traps and compensate for them.

The Status-Quo Trap

We are predisposed to perpetuating the status quo.  Deep within our psyches, we are self-protective and risk-aversive.

The Antidote

Don’t maintain the status quo just because it’s comfortable. Do so only when it turns out to be the best choice.

• Remind yourself of your objectives. Examine how they would be served by the status quo.
• Never think of the status quo as your only alternative. Identify other options.
• Ask yourself: Would I choose the status quo if it weren’t so?

From sexuality to religion, we seek balance between the unchosen realities that anchor us (race, geography, history) and choices that liberate us.

Making important choices is never simple, but it can be a lot easier and more fulfilling when we pay attention to where the choice is coming from.  From business to personal choices, we don't have to make choices from circumstances---like the selection process of choosing from a smorgasbord.  Our life choices are best when they come from a deep understanding of who we are and what our life's work is.

Becoming aware of our unique identity (our assumptions/beliefs, values, vision, guiding principles and signature talents) helps us to make conscious choices.

When considering a decision, the mind gives disproportionate weight to the first information it receives. Initial impressions, estimates or data anchor subsequent thoughts and judgments.

In business, a common anchor is a past event or trend.  While relying on such may lead to a reasonably accurate estimate of future numbers, it also tends to give too much weight to past events and not enough to other factors.

The Antidote

Anchors affect how virtually all professionals make decisions. No one can avoid their influence. But becoming aware of their dangers can reduce their impact:

• Always view a problem from different perspectives. Try using alternative starting points and approaches rather than sticking with your first line of thought.
• Think about the problem on your own before consulting others.
• Be open-minded. Seek opinions from a variety of people to widen your frame of reference.
• Avoid anchoring your advisers, consultants and others from whom you solicit information. Tell them as little as possible about your ideas and estimates. If you reveal too much, your preconceptions may simply come back to you.

A lack of interpersonal skills is the main cause of leadership failure.

Interpersonal skills include the leader's ability to build strong relationships internally and externally, and to motivate others.  The most effective leaders adjust their behavior to reflect the needs of the situation and the people they are working with.

There is a disconnect between how managers see themselves and how their staff see them.

In a 2007 survey by the Tracom Group of Highlands Ranch, CO, 166 executives, 337 managers and 377 staff were asked a series of questions about organizational performance.  Over half of the managers who participated thought interpersonal skills were one of their greatest strengths, yet 55% of staff said their bosses could improve those skills.  This lack of personal objectivity is part of human nature and speaks to the need for increased self-awareness by the manager.

Ineffective communication can cause more than misunderstandings. Nearly 82 percent of managers and 87 percent of staff believe that poor communication within or across work teams is a cause of poor productivity in the workplace.  Nearly 73 percent of executives indicated that a common reason for executive-level leaders to fail or become derailed in their careers is ineffective communication with all levels of employees.

Executives are promoted for their abilities to "bring in the numbers," take tough stands and create strategic plans.  But when they bomb, it is usually because of lousy people skills.

While most firms have become adept at defining financial and operational success, most find that the softer side of people performance is often the hardest to quantify.  Yet, employees represent the largest cost in most enterprises.  Measurement typically is focused on what was accomplished but how things are accomplished within a company is important.

Executives often fail for a few common reasons: due to unclear or outsized expectations, a failure to build partnerships with key stakeholders, a failure to learn the company, industry or the job itself fast enough, a failure to determine the process for gaining commitments from direct reports and a failure to recognize and manage the impact of change on people.

To become successful, a manager must be adept at handling all sorts of complex, touchy interpersonal dynamics, at sizing up a situation quickly and dealing with a wide range of personalities. Good listening skills are critical.

Many executives are promoted for their technical skills but could use more help developing leadership skills.  First-time leaders, in particular, "feel poorly prepared for their roles and struggle with the transition.  The higher up you go in a company's hierarchy, the value of your technical skills decline while the value of your interpersonal skills increase. When we were in school, many of us were "athletes" and we learned to win the game. When we entered the work world, we became "warriors" and learned how to achieve the goals set before us.  However, when we were promoted or recruited for a management position, no one told us that we needed to change our perspective from a warrior to a "leader"....so we could adapt to working through people in whatever situation we faced. Leadership development is self-development.   Learning how to not micromanage, not be overly concrete, not fail to explicitly state expectations and other unproductive interpersonal behavior only happens through the increased self-awareness gained best in a personal coaching or mentoring relationship.

For anyone born after 1985, entering the workforce is a technological shock.

Raised on MySpace.com, Facebook.com and Wikipedia, these workers can't comprehend why they should have to wait 18 months for a company to build corporate software when they can download what they need instantly.  "Technology is an important thing in my personal and work life, and I think the two of them should be connected," says Amy Johanningman, a 22-year-old college senior who worked at a company one summer where the use of social-networking sites was discouraged, camera phones verboten, and the interns were told to limit personal emails.

Corporate policy isn't stopping Johannigman's contemporaries.  Sure, there are official policies against using gear the tech department hasn't sanctioned, but the sheer number of workers who are flouting the rules makes enforcement nearly impossible.  Consulting firm Forrester Research even coined a term for workers ignoring corporate policy and taking technology into their own hands: Technology Populism.

Corporate leadership would be wise to keep technology up-to-date for Gen X to stay productive.  For Gen Y encourage suggestions and don't fear change.  Gen Y is more comfortable with technology than any other group.  Learn from them.

Source: Business@Work, BusinessWeek, August 25, 2008

Regardless of your industry, it is the people who work for you who are your sustainable competitive advantage.  You need to do everything possible to find, develop and keep those people who make your company competitive.

No matter what business you're in, you are in the business of building leaders.  Rather than risk losing a key employee, invest in developing their skills for a future leadership role.  Doing so will keep the employee engaged, demonstrate your company's commitment to retaining and growing in-house talent and ultimately help your organization's bottom line.

The cost associated with losing a key employee is estimated at the equivalent of 18 months' salary.  In addition to the cost of the search for a replacement, this includes developing the new employee up to the performance and organizational knowledge of the person who left.

If your company's size or other constraints make an in-house leadership program impractical, turn to your peer network to identify opportunities.  A successful leadership program can help an organization achieve its growth goals, bring products to market faster and have a positive effect on the bottom line.

Establishing a leadership program within your company can help turn the question, "Is next in line, the best in line?" into an affirmative statement.

Source: Deborah Phillips, Chief Administrative Officer, Priority Health

Michael Phelps stands 6 feet 4 inches (193 centimeters) and weighs 195 pounds (88.5 kilograms), with the broad shoulders and slim waist common to the elite swimmer.

But consider his body measurements a little closer and it becomes clearer why Phelps is dominating these Olympic Games.  He has an extended trunk and relatively short legs, a distinct advantage in the water.  The inseam of his pants is reportedly 32 inches (81 centimeters), shorter than that of Hicham El Guerrouj, the great Moroccan runner, who is 5 feet 9 inches (175 centimeters) but all legs.

Phelps has double-jointed elbows, knees, and ankles, which allows him to bend himself like few swimmers can. His size-14 (European-size 48.5) feet are like giant fins.

Add to that the extraordinary work rate of his lungs and heart and Phelps appears almost superhuman--a different species from the rest of us.

Of course, he also trains extraordinarily hard.  But so do others.  To be an Olympic champion, a person's genes must first be preset for maximal athletic performance.  After all, great athletes are born, then made better.

All athletes have coaches.  What's your game plan for personal success? 

For how to build your innate signature talents into winning strengths, go to:

www.LifeSignature.com 

Source: National Geographic News, August 20, 2004

The number of women in state government leadership positions is on the rise, with the percentage nearly mirroring their representation in the general population in six states, according to a report by the Center for Women in Government & Civil Society at the University at Albany, NY.

Of the governor-appointed posts in all 50 states last year, 35% were held by women, up from 28% a decade earlier.  "The most important thing is the fact that in 36 of the states, women are doing better, I mean as a comparison of the percentage of women in leadership posts compared with the percentage of women in the state," said Judith Saidel, the lead author and the center director.

In Alaska, Connecticut, Montana, Nevada, Vermont and Washington, the number of women in senior policy positions is roughly even with their percentage of the general population in those states, the study found.  Agencies in areas where women have traditionally been better represented--including health, human rights and education--still have the highest number of women in leadership.

Source: The Associated Press, August 12, 2008

The Glass Ceiling

While 95 percent of 2,521 American workers believe women have made important advancements in the workplace over the last ten years, 86 percent also believe that the glass ceiling is still in place, according to the Women in the Workplace survey by Harris Interactive, Rochester, NY.

For women executives mentoring other women, go to: www.WomanLeadership.com 

The Women Leadership Network is an example of how executive women networks are emerging in the corporate world to use their creative smarts and Internet-based technology to counter the old boy's club.  Women are also beginning to mentor other women on how to advance and succeed doing powerful and interesting work...while living a fulfilling personal life.

If you know women executives in your organization who need to become better and more creative leaders, suggest you point them toward:  www.executivewoman.info

The magnetic poles of Earth have changed often in the planet's history.  And there are many indications that the planet is preparing for another shift.

The evidence is in every clay pot that was ever fired.  During high-temperature baking, iron materials in clay record the exact state of Earth's magnetic field at the precise moment.  By examining pots from prehistory to modern times, geologist John Shaw of the University of Liverpool in England has discovered how the magnetic field has weakened.  "When we plot the results from the ceramics," he says, "we see a rapid fall as we come toward the present day.  The rate of change is higher over the last 300 years than it has been for any time in the past 5,000 years.  It's going from a strong field down to a weak field, and it's doing so very quickly."

No one is sure what will happen. 

The field could weaken such that the poles suddenly flip polarity--that is, compasses begin to point to the south magnetic pole.  Reversals are unpredictable.  They come at irregular intervals averaging about 300,000 years; the last one was 780,000 years ago, making us long overdue.

Scientist Gary Glatzmaier of the University of California at Santa Cruz has observed such reversals as they occur in computer simulations.  These virtual events show striking similarities to the current behavior of Earth's magnetic field and suggest we are about to experience another reversal.  However, reversals take a few hundred to a few thousand years to complete.  "During that time it just gets more complicated," says Glatzmaier.  "Magnetic lines of force near the Earth's surface become twisted and tangled and magnetic poles pop up in unaccustomed places.  A south magnetic pole might emerge over Africa, for instance, or a north pole over Tahiti."

Of course, since the last magnetic field shift occurred over 780,000 years ago, none of us really knows what happens to humans.  But the real magnetic shift will happen over long periods of time, allowing humans to adapt their bodies to a new environment.

The greatest danger of a magnetic pole shift is the breakdown in the magnetic shield that protects us from solar radiation.  There is evidence that the shield is not likely to disappear but simply to have weak spots, even holes, that may allow more than normal radiation to penetrate to the surface in a few places.  Scientists have presented detailed information about this on the PBS NOVA program Magnetic Storm, originally aired November 18, 2003, but often re-aired.  A DVD of this program is available at: http://shop.wgbh.org

Source: Ancient Mysteries newsletter, www.EdgarCayce.org

Automakers, brokerages, retailers, airlines, home builders, banks, newspapers and countless other ailing industries are slashing staff.  Your job could disappear tomorrow.  Getting ready for your next career transition should be part of your workday schedule today.

Here are some career transition tips that you should pay attention to long before you are walked out of your workplace:

Transfer your latest performance review, summary of accomplishments, address list of business and personal contacts, work samples and laudatory customer letters to a jump drive--a portable computer-storage device--so you can retrieve them from outside the office.

Update your resume but don't plan on sending it out until you have discussed what's next for you with an executive career coach....because you only have one chance to make a good first impression with people who can help you find your next job. 

When an executive is looking for another job, a huge mistake is to send his or her resume to prospective employers.

Why? Because prospective employers are not interested in your past responsibilities, education and experience.  You will only turn their heads by being clear as to what you are looking for in a position with their company, what you have accomplished in your life and past work experiences, what your signature talents are and what other firms you may be considering in your job search.  My coaching clients include those four elements on a one page document that they get into the hands of prospective employers.

Here are five tips on how to put together your solid accomplishments:

1.  Think of your list of accomplishments as sharing the results you have delivered for others in your professional and personal lives.

2.  Ask yourself the following questions about each of your previous jobs:

*What was your impact on your team, business unit, division, company and enterprise?

*What would not have happened if you hadn't been there?

*What are you proudest of during your career with each previous employer?

3.  Look over old performance reviews and note what your boss praised you for doing well.  Are your accomplishments listed in the document?  What do letters of recommendation or company newsletters say about the results you achieved in the organization?

4.  If you have increased profitability and/or decreased costs, list these accomplishments by applying numbers where possible, using percentages, dollar signs and time qualifiers.

5.  If your employer or industry association has recognized you with an award, cite it.  But make sure any award you cite is based on you making something positive happen.

You can also plan for a possible job hunt by installing a business phone at home (or a business cell phone) and adding that new phone number to your business card...before any new unannounced dismissals might take place.

Seeking legal counsel before the pink slip arrives is another smart move, according to Laurel Bellows, a Chicago employment attorney.  That's especially important for anyone who feels s/he has a complaint that might be covered under bias, whistle-blower or other employment laws.

If and when you are told you will be layed off, among the extras that you might request in a departure package are acclerated vesting of stock grants, a partial bonus, extended health-care insurance coverage and lengthy outplacement career coaching.  Draft your exit wish list in advance. 

Sources: The Wall Street Journal, January 16, 2007 and August 5, 2008

Transformation often asks for something to die so that something new can be born.

Some transformations seem to require the kind of vulnerability that accompanies extreme loss or grief.  Nature often reveals new self-knowledge to us and thus serves as a catalyst for transformation.

It's a lasting change for the better that springs from a radically shifting your perspective of who you are.  Meaning and purpose become more clear to you, and things that are out of alignment in your life gradually fall away.  But the most fundamental change is within you; it is a profound shift in where you direct your attention and your intention.

The new self-awareness reveals a more expanded world of relationships than you previously perceived while you gain new perspectives and definitions of self.  Seeing with new eyes allows for a new understanding of yourself and your unfolding.  This most essential change, the one from which all other changes spring, is a change in your worldview and your perception of what is possible.

Source: "Living Deeply: The Art and Science of Transformation in Everyday Life"

Marilyn Mandala Schlitz: Living Deeply: The Art and Science of Transformation in Everyday Life (IONS/ New Harbinger) 

"Senior Honoring Ceremonies" are designed to celebrate each graduating senior--not just the few who have shown outstanding achievement in academics or athletics.

A vase filled with a variety of long-stemmed flowers sits in the center of a softly lit room.  The first circle of chairs holds a number of students and the teachers who will address them.  In the chairs behind them are parents and other faculty. 

After a welcome by the school principal, teachers go one at a time to the center of the circle, select a unique flower from the vase, and stand before a surprised and curious student.  One teacher begins: "I have watched you grow this last year and become strong like the sturdy stalk of this giant iris.  When you came into my class, I could tell that you were used to being one of the clowns.  Yet, when it came time to share our stories, you took the first risk.  You inspired all of us with the courage of your vulnerability.  I want to honor you for the warmth you brought to each of us and the initiative and courage you've shown.  I respect you as a leader and value you as a friend."

The young man beams.  His father, behind him, looks stunned.  This is his younger son--the cutup, the disappointment after the academic achiever who went before him, the one who has brought his father too many times to the disciplinary dean's office.  After listening to one of the most respected teachers in the school describe the outstanding gifts of character this boy has demonstrated in his final year of high school, the father's face is soft, tears glistening.  He places is hands on his son's broad shoulders.  One squeeze tells the boy that his father has heard, that he sees him in a new light.

In the father's eyes looms a key question: What went right?

The answer: At the heart of every adolescent experience is an exquisite opening to spirit--an awakening of energy when larger questions of meaning and purpose, of ultimate beginnings and endings, begin to press with both an urgency and a loneliness much too powerful to be dismissed as "hormones."  What went right is that this young man found experiences that nourished his spiritual development.

Source: SHIFT: At the frontiers of consciousness, June-August 2008

Many organizations are chronically concerned that they don't have the right talent to succeed, and this is especially true in the area of leadership.

They view leadership as among the top issues affecting their organizations both today and in the future, yet they're often dissatisfied with everything from succession planning systems to leadership development programs.  Amid these concerns, coaching has come onto the scene more prominently in recent years.

Executive coaching is often viewed with a combination of hope and skepticism.  On the one hand, assigning individual employees a coach seems like an excellent way to provide custom-delivered development opportunities to both current and aspiring leaders.  On the other hand, coaching is often viewed as a kind of "cottage industry" where credentials are questionable, services are expensive and success is hard to measure.

To gain a better understanding of both the promise and perils of coaching, American Management Association (AMA) commissioned the Institute for Corporate Productivity to conduct a global survey of coaching practices in today's organizations.

For a copy of the AMA global study of successful coaching practices, go to:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Coach2Coach/files/AMACoach.pdf

For Women Only

John Agno of Signature, Inc. and Barb McEwen of 20/20 Executive Coaching, Inc. come together once a year to offer a TeleSeminar Series that's packed full of great information to help women navigate the corporate terrain.

If you want to accomplish more with less effort, check the TeleSeminars out. You'll learn why there are boulders in your career path, and then discover ways to blast those boulders sky-high.

The cost is a mere $49 per session and you can select as many or as few sessions as you like. The first course begins 12:00 noon EST for 1 hour on Wednesday, October 1st. Each of the following courses takes place on consecutive Wednesdays through November 19th.

Check it out now.

Chief executives recruited from outside a company earn significantly more in their first year than those promoted from within, according to a new study.

Executive-pay tracker Equilar Inc. found that external hires in 2007 and early 2008 received median compensation of $6.6 million, 65% more than the median $4 million for internally promoted CEOs.   The compensation figure includes salary, cash bonuses and equity incentives.  Compensation experts say outside hires tend to be paid more to offset the risks and costs of leaving one company for another, including lost benefits and equity.

The new study examined an unusually broad set of companies--nearly 1,300 across three major Standard & Poor's indexes.  On average, outsiders were paid more at all companies, regardless of size.  In the S&P 600 SmallCap Index, external recruits were paid a median of $3.6 million, more than twice the $1.6 million paid to internal successors.

Of the nearly 1,300 companies surveyed by Equilar, 136 replaced their CEOs last year, including 38 that hired outsiders.  Small companies turned outward most often, probably because they lag behind larger organizations in succession planning, says Tim Sparks, president of Compensia Inc., a San Jose, CA, compensation consultancy.

Gaining Leadership Expertise by Spending Time in Non-Core Roles

Firms that direct senior executives to spend more time on their non-core job roles, see higher levels of performance, according to a survey by the University of Michigan's Ross School of Business.  According to the survey of 378 Michigan-based executives, the average participant spend about 45 percent of his or her time on core job responsibilities and 55% in other areas: in project-based teams, enhancing individual career skills, developing innovative ideas or processes and working to support the overall company.

Those who spent just 36 percent of their time on core roles actually managed a higher-performing company than those who spent 50 percent of their time on core roles, according to the study. 

"Leaders are pulled in various directions and that is why executive coaching is such a popular service these days, " says Jim Mitchell, senior vice president and general manager of Lee Hecht Harrison in Michigan.  "If you don't take risks and are concentrating on those core roles that have an executive at his or her desk all day, you might be missing some good business opportunities."

Source: Michigan Business at www.mbizreview.com and The Wall Street Journal, July 28, 2008

Technology, including the Internet and blogs, strips away the protections that used to shield businesses from the consequences of their imperfections. 

There is no such thing as an eraser on the Internet.

The success of any economy owes much more to the fact that the culture considers trust and fairness to be important social norms.  And as new technologies wire us ever more tightly together, you can go to the bank on the fact that consumers and businesses alike will become even more trustworthy and transparent in their dealings with others.

Of 462 executives who were asked, "What characteristics are needed to be an effective leader today?" 56 percent ranked ethical behavior as an important characteristic, followed by sound judgment (51%) and being adaptable/flexible (47%). --Source: American Management Association, New York, NY

Connectivity means untrustworthy business will be quickly and efficiently outed, making it far more financially risky to take short-term advantage of a customer.  And it might be easy to get away with once.  But then a scorching expose will be posted online, only to be downloaded by others months or years from now, maybe even becoming part of your "permanent record."

Rather than worrry about how customer opinions or customer generated content might harm your image, you can create substantial immediate and long-term benefits for your business by facilitating them.  And if yours is one of the many companies considering some kind of corporate blog or forum, trust and transparency will improve the benefits of this venture, as well.

Source: Face to Face, 1to1 magazine, July 2008

Here’s a proposed outline for framing a successful presentation that persuades others to act in the direction you desire:

1. Write down your persuasion goal, what you hope to accomplish, what you expect others to do and the ideal time frame.
2. List the questions you’ll ask your audience to determine their perceptions on the issue.
3. List each of the seven internal triggers. Under each one, list every possible item that could apply. Select and prioritize the three or four triggers best suited to the situation.
4. Frame your presentation with the beginning and ending that have the highest impact. The friendship trigger, coupled with the reciprocity trigger, is a great start. You’ll also want early application of the authority trigger.
5. The body of the proposal, including the logic and data, will follow the other trigger information. Minimal application of logic and data will reinforce a positive decision.
6. Finally, frame your closure by defining precisely what you want your audience to do, and determine how you will ask for this action.

Recommended Reading:

Cialdini, Robert B., Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion, Collins Business Essentials, 2007.

Cialdini, Robert B., Goldstein, N., Martin, S.J., Yes! 50 Scientifically Proven Ways to Be Persuasive, Free Press, 2008.

Granger, Russell H. The 7 Triggers to Yes, McGraw-Hill, 2008

We respond to persuasive attempts either analytically or automatically.

Those who respond analytically use a reasoned evaluative approach to come to a decision, but  this requires enormous energy. The brain uses up reserves of glucose and calories whenever it evaluates.

And because it’s human nature to conserve energy, most of us won’t respond with the extra effort required to be analytical.  In fact, most people slip into automatic-response mode whenever possible.

This doesn’t mean you can skip logical arguments, but it does place less emphasis on reason and more on emotion.  When you understand that people want to make rapid, automatic and accelerated decisions, you can make it easier on those you’re trying to influence.

How do we generate automatic influence?

With triggers.  Everybody has them.  A trigger is any stimulus that will help us make a non-thinking decision or action.  A trigger activates a person’s immediate compliance with an attempt to influence. It’s simply a shortcut to avoid the pain and effort of mental activity.

Let’s examine the seven triggers that automatically influence others.

1. The Friendship Trigger

We are more easily influenced by people we like, and liking is a prerequisite for the other triggers.  Friendship generates trust, and trust activates a strong internal trigger. Find connections and common interests, and listen to the people you wish to influence.

2. The Authority Trigger

We respond with unthinking, automatic compliance to those we believe have authority, credibility and power. Managers and leaders may think they have authority by virtue of their position, but without the likeability factor, this trigger is weakened. The authority trigger works because we assume the person in position of authority has done the evaluation work for us.

3. The Consistency Trigger

Our internal guidance system compels us to be consistent in the way we see ourselves and the peers we admire. We are slaves to consistency and conformity; in fact, these drives are hard-wired into our brain. When it’s time to make a decision, we call up an emotional memory that’s similar to the situation at hand, and we’re guided in the same direction.

4. The Reciprocity Trigger

Reciprocity is the well-documented psychological desire to give back to someone who has given us a gift.  It’s another automatic response hard-wired into our brains.  Marketers have been using bonus gifts and free samples for years.

5. The Contrast Trigger

Framing a proposition so it appears more desirable than an alternative is a proven automatic compliance technique. Always present the most onerous approach first, followed by what you really want.

6. The Reason Why Trigger

When you present a valid reason to accept a proposition, you achieve compliance.

7. The Hope Trigger

We are easily persuaded by those who understand our hopes, wishes and dreams.  Once we perceive an opportunity to satisfy them, we seldom rely on cognitive thought or logic before we act.